Bullish or Bearish? Week of February 20, 2023
Short-term trend (DAILY CHART) – SLIGHT PULLBACK: SPX fell from from 4090 to 4079, a measly 11-point drop. The market started Friday much lower at the open, but was able to gain back most of the losses by the end of the day. As mentioned last week, SPX is still above its three major moving averages, but pointing down. Futures are LOWER on Monday night, but that could change in the morning.
Long-term trend (WEEKLY CHART) – STALL: SPX on the weekly chart has stalled out over the last two weeks and is struggling to gain traction.
MACD (DAILY) = NEUTRAL. MACD is above its zero line but fell slightly below the 9-day signal line, reflecting the recent pullback in SPX and the other indexes.
RSI: (S&P 500) @52.17 (DAILY) NEUTRAL. RSI is firmly in the neutral zone, which means it's impossible to predict which direction SPX and the other indexes will move this week.
Comment: Last week, I thought the market would react strongly to the Fed speech, but it hardly budged. Nevertheless, although volatility didn't increase after the Fed tightened, the market "feels" weak. Some pros are predicting that a recession is dead ahead. However, we don't trade on feelings, only on the facts and clues.
The fact is that the Fed is still tightening, whether people want to ignore it or not (whatever happened to the mantra, "Don't fight the Fed?). From a technical standpoint, SPX must hold 4,000 (it's now considered support), or it could get ugly fast.
We'll see if the bulls can take control over the next four days. During uncertain times like this, increasing cash and T-bills is often wise, while reducing exposure to equities. Only you can make that decision, however.
Bottom line: We are once again in unknown territory.